THE U.S PIVOT ON PAKISTAN’S CRITICAL MINERALS: STRATEGIC LEVERAGE OVER CPEC VIA BALOCHISTAN AND EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES IN AZAD JAMMU & KASHMIR

Abstract

The use of resource diplomacy as a means of power projection has returned to the South Asian geopolitical chessboard. This comprehensive study looks at the strategic goals of past US Statements made by President Donald Trump on "massive oil reserves" in Pakistan. A more thorough geopolitical analysis indicates that Trump's oil rhetoric may have been a calculated strategic move to weaken China's influence in Pakistan, primarily through its flagship China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), despite the media portraying these remarks as just another exaggeration from a divisive figure.

According to this analysis, Trump's public remarks concealed a calculated, if poorly carried out, attempt to use the new global competition for vital minerals to restore American significance in Pakistan's strategic and economic environment. As the main component of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), CPEC has made Pakistan an essential conduit for China's trade and energy policies. But it has also created opportunities for counter-alignment, particularly in politically unstable but resource-rich areas like Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) and Balochistan.

At a time when the global critical minerals debate was heating up due in large part to the shift to clean energy, electric vehicles, and technology production, the Trump administration made a shift to resource diplomacy. The United States attempted to diversify its sources since it was heavily dependent on imported essential minerals, especially from China. Although not previously thought to be at the centre of this conversation, Pakistan started to garner attention because of its undeveloped quantities of lithium, copper, gold, and possibly rare earth elements.

The Strategic Resource Diplomacy Framework (SRDF), a recently developed analytical model, is used in this research to assess Trump's interactions with Pakistan. It looks into whether the US pivot was primarily intended as a geopolitical containment tactic to weaken Beijing's hold on South Asia or if it was based on real partnership building.

This report also analyses the effects of this change on Pakistan's internal governance, security frameworks, resource sovereignty, and long-term economic independence. Is Pakistan in danger of turning into a battlefield in a new Cold War of supply chains and economic zones, or can it use American interests to counterbalance Chinese dominance?

By offering a multifaceted examination of how mineral diplomacy is influencing South Asia's geopolitical landscape, this thesis advances the fields of international relations, mineral policy, and development studies. It casts doubt on the widely held belief that Trump's diplomacy was disorganised and raises the possibility that its populist delivery concealed strategic coherence.